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Nature. 2009 Sep 3;461(7260):53-9. doi: 10.1038/nature08227.

Early-warning signals for critical transitions.

Author information

  • 1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

PMID:
19727193
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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