Let
s1 be the randomly picked sequence at generation
a=
3. The common ancestor between
s1 and any of the sequences represented by the blue dots is indeed
s0 (the founder strain), whereas the common ancestor between
s1 and any of the sequences represented by the red dots sits at generation
a=
1. There are
22-1 “red” sequences out of a total of
23-1 sequences we could choose
s2 from at generation 3. Therefore, the probability of
s1 and
s2 coalescing at generation
m =1 instead of generation 0 is

. This probability decreases exponentially as
m gets larger. Indeed, by generalizing the above argument, one can see that if
s1 is picked at random at generation
a, there are exactly

sequences that coalesce
m generations after the founder strain, out of the total of

sequences
s2 could be picked out of. Hence the probability of coalescing
a-m generations back, with 1 ≤
m <
a , is given by

, and the probability of coalescing at the founder strain is

. So, the larger
R0, the smaller the error in assuming that everything coalesces at the founder.