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Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2009 Nov;7(11):1236-40. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2009.06.009. Epub 2009 Jun 26.

New model for end stage liver disease improves prognostic capability after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

Author information

  • 1Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA. jennifer.guy@ucsf.edu

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS:

Cirrhotic patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding are at risk for decompensation and death. This study examined whether a new model for end stage liver disease (MELD), which incorporates serum sodium (MELDNa), is a better predictor of death or transplant after TIPS than the original MELD.

METHODS:

One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients undergoing nonemergent TIPS for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding from 1997 to 2006 at a single center were evaluated retrospectively. Cox model analysis was performed with death or transplant within 6 months as the end point. The models were compared using the Harrell's C index. Recursive partitioning determined the optimal MELDNa cutoff to maximize the risk:benefit ratio of TIPS.

RESULTS:

The predictive ability of MELDNa was superior to MELD, particularly in patients with low MELD scores. The C indices (95% confidence interval [CI]) for MELDNa and MELD were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.71) and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.51-0.67) using a cut-off score of 18, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.49-0.74) using a cut-off score of 15. Using a MELDNa >15, 22% of patients were reclassified to a higher risk with an event rate of 44% compared with 10% when the score was <or=15.

CONCLUSIONS:

MELDNa performed better than MELD in predicting death or transplant after non-emergent TIPS, especially in patients with low MELD scores. A MELD score <or=18 can provide a false positive prognosis; a MELDNa score <or=15 provides a more accurate risk prediction.

PMID:
19560557
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC2783337
Free PMC Article

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