INTRODUCTION: The purpose of the study was to test the hypothesis that the reduction in fractures with hormone therapy (HT) is greater in women with lower estradiol levels. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within the Women's Health Initiative HT Trials. The sample included 231 hip fracture case-control pairs and a random sample of 519 all fracture case-control pairs. Cases and controls were matched for age, ethnicity, randomization date, fracture history, and hysterectomy status. Hormones were measured prior to randomization. Incident cases of fracture were identified over an average follow-up of 6.53 years. RESULTS: There was no evidence that the effect of HT on fracture differed by baseline estradiol (E2) or sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Across all quartiles of E2 and SHBG, women randomized to HT had about a 50% lower risk of fracture, including hip fracture, compared to placebo. CONCLUSION: The effect of HT on fracture reduction is independent of estradiol and SHBG levels.