Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the predictive validity of eight different adherence measures by studying the variability explained between each measure and hospitalization episodes among Medicaid-eligible persons diagnosed with schizophrenia on antipsychotic monotherapy.
Methods: This study was a retrospective analysis of the Arkansas Medicaid administrative claims data. Continuously eligible adult schizophrenia (ICD-9-CM = 295.**) patients on antipsychotic monotherapy were identified in the recruitment period from July 2000 through April 2004. Adherence rates to antipsychotic therapy in year 1 were calculated using eight different measures identified from the literature. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to prospectively predict all-cause and mental health-related hospitalizations in the follow-up year.
Results: Adherence rates were computed for 3395 schizophrenic patients with a mean age of 42.9 years, of which 52.5% (n = 1782) were females, and 52.8% (n = 1793) were white. The proportion of days covered (PDC) and continuous measure of medication gaps measures of adherence had equal C-statistics of 0.571 in predicting both all-cause and mental health-related hospitalizations. The medication possession ratio (MPR) continuous multiple interval measure of oversupply were the second best measures with equal C-statistics of 0.568 and 0.567 for any-cause and mental health-related hospitalizations. The multivariate adjusted models had higher C-statistics but provided the same rank order results.
Conclusions: MPR and PDC were among the best predictors of any-cause and mental health-related hospitalization, and are recommended as the preferred adherence measures when a single measure is sought for use with administrative claims data for patients not on polypharmacy.