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Epidemiology. 2009 May;20(3):344-7. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31819d1092.

Estimation of the serial interval of influenza.

Author information

  • 1Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health and bMicrobiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. bcowling@hku.hk

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

: Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households.

METHODS:

: Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households were followed-up with repeated home visits.

RESULTS:

: Assuming a Weibull model and accounting for selection bias inherent in our field study design, we used symptom-onset times from 14 pairs of infector/infectee to estimate a mean serial interval of 3.6 days (95% confidence interval = 2.9-4.3 days), with standard deviation 1.6 days.

CONCLUSION:

: The household serial interval of influenza may be longer than previously estimated. Studies of the complete serial interval, based on transmission in all community contexts, are a priority.

PMID:
19279492
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC3057478
Free PMC Article

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