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Tob Control. 2009 Jun;18(3):183-9. doi: 10.1136/tc.2008.027615. Epub 2009 Jan 29.

Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?

Author information

  • 1The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Level 2, Public Health Building, Herston Road, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia. c.gartner@sph.uq.edu.au

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007.

METHODS:

A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation.

RESULTS:

The results suggest that Australia's smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS:

Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.

PMID:
19179370
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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