Abstract

OBJECTIVES:

To estimate stage-specific transition probabilities in individuals coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV), to examine the effect of covariates on these rates, and to investigate the effect of HIV on HCV-related cirrhosis in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

DESIGN:

Systematic review of natural history studies among HCV-infected individuals.

METHODS:

Markov maximum likelihood estimation method was used to estimate stage-specific transition probabilities. A meta-analysis was performed to obtain pooled transition probabilities, and a meta-regression to investigate the impact of covariates on these rates. Risk of cirrhosis between individuals monoinfected with HCV and coinfected with HIV/HCV were compared by HAART status.

RESULTS:

The estimated mean (95% confidence intervals) annual transition probabilities of 3567 individuals coinfected with HIV/HCV (n = 17 studies) were as follows: fibrosis stage (F) F0 --> F1 0.122 (0.098-0.153); F1 --> F2 0.115 (0.095-0.140); F2 --> F3 0.124 (0.097-0.159); and F3 --> F4 0.115 (0.098-0.135) units/year. The prevalence of cirrhosis after 20 and 30 years of HCV infection was 21% (16-28%) and 49% (40-59%), respectively. Longer duration of HCV infection was significantly associated with slower rate of fibrosis progression. The overall rate ratio of cirrhosis between individuals coinfected with HIV/HCV and monoinfected with HCV (n = 27 studies) was 2.1 (1.5-3.0), 2.5 (1.8-3.4) in the non-HAART group, and 1.7 (1.1-2.8) in the HAART group.

CONCLUSION:

The rate of fibrosis progression among individuals coinfected with HIV/HCV appears constant. Our results confirm that chronic hepatitis C outcomes are worse among coinfected individuals. Over the period studied, HAART did not appear to fully correct the adverse effect of HIV infection on HCV prognosis.