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Traffic Inj Prev. 2008 Aug;9(4):336-41. doi: 10.1080/15389580802117184.

Predicting driving performance in older adults: we are not there yet!

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  • 1Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada.



We set up this study to determine the predictive value of approaches for which a statistical association with driving performance has been documented.


We determined the statistical association (magnitude of association and probability of occurrence by chance alone) between four different predictors (the Mini-Mental State Examination, Trails A test, Useful Field of View [UFOV], and a composite measure of past driving incidents) and driving performance. We then explored the predictive value of these measures with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and various cutoff values.


We identified associations between the predictors and driving performance well beyond the play of chance (p < .01). Nonetheless, the predictors had limited predictive value with areas under the curve ranging from .51 to .82.


Statistical associations are not sufficient to infer adequate predictive value, especially when crucial decisions such as whether one can continue driving are at stake. The predictors we examined have limited predictive value if used as stand-alone screening tests.

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