Association between changes in triglyceride levels and future morbidity (analysis 2). A: Multivariate model showing the association between fasting serum triglyceride levels obtained at two measurements 5 years apart* and incidence of type 2 diabetes. The multivariate Cox regression model was adjusted for age, BMI, total cholesterol–to–HDL cholesterol ratio, fasting plasma glucose, time lapse between time 1 and time 2 determinations, and mean arterial blood pressure as continuous variables and physical activity (yes, no, or missing information), family history of diabetes (positive, negative, or missing information), and smoking status (current, noncurrent smoker, or missing information). To convert the values for triglycerides to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0113. B: Multivariate model comparing HRs for diabetes or heart disease associated with fasting triglyceride levels in two measurements 5 years apart*. The model was adjusted, as in A, for age, family history of coronary heart disease (positive, negative, or missing information), interval between time 1 and time 2, time 1 levels of fasting plasma HDL cholesterol, glucose, mean arterial blood pressure, and BMI (as continuous variables). In addition, the model was adjusted for the changes between time 1 and time 2 in BMI, physical activity (nonactive/nonactive, nonactive/active, active/nonactive, or active/active), smoking status (current/current, current/noncurrent, noncurrent/current, or noncurrent/noncurrent), and habit of eating breakfast (no/no, no/yes, yes/no, or yes/yes). The results regarding heart disease have been published in Ref. 13. *Time 1 is determination at enrollment; time 2 is determination obtained 5 years after time 1 determination. In this analysis (analysis 2), follow-up begins from time 2, as detailed under research design and methods.