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    Am J Hosp Palliat Care. 2008 Apr-May;25(2):139-45.

    Prediction of patient survival by healthcare professionals in a specialist palliative care inpatient unit: a prospective study.

    Twomey F, O'Leary N, O'Brien T.

    Marymount Hospice, St Patrick's Hospital, Wellington Road, Cork, Ireland. uatuama1@ireland.com

    Accurate prognostication is an enormous challenge for professionals caring for patients with advanced disease. Few studies have compared the prognostic accuracy of different professional groups within a hospice setting. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of 5 professional groups to estimate the survival of patients admitted to a specialist palliative care unit. No group accurately predicted the length of patient survival more than 50% of the time. Nursing and junior medical staff were most accurate while care assistants were least accurate. When in error, senior clinical staff tended to under-estimate survival. Independent mobility on admission was the only variable predictive of length of survival. Thus, professional groups differ in their prognostic accuracy. An awareness of a group's propensity to over- or under-estimate prognosis should be incorporated into future work on prognostication models.

    PMID: 18445863 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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