Ann Neurol. 2008 Jun;63(6):790-3.

Predicting progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: a 10-year multicenter study.

Khaleeli Z, Ciccarelli O, Manfredonia F, Barkhof F, Brochet B, Cercignani M, Dousset V, Filippi M, Montalban X, Polman C, Rovaris M, Rovira A, Sastre-Garriga J, Vellinga M, Miller D, Thompson A.

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Department of Brain Repair and Rehabilitation, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

Abstract

Rates of progression vary widely in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. This multicenter study aimed to identify predictors of progression over 10 years. A total of 101 patients who had been imaged at baseline and 2 years were scored on the expanded disability status scale after 10 years. Ordinal logistic regression identified the following independent variables that predicted progression: male sex, shorter disease duration, and slower timed walk test at baseline (best overall predictor), and deterioration in expanded disability status scale score and reduction in brain volume over 2 years. These predictors of long-term disability provide some insight into disease progression.

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