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    Math Biosci. 1991 Oct;106(2):203-22.

    A simulation model of AIDS in San Francisco: I. Model formulation and parameter estimation.

    Hethcote HW, Van Ark JW, Longini IM Jr.

    Source

    Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City.

    Abstract

    A model is formulated for the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the subsequent development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the population of homosexual men in San Francisco. The dynamic simulation model includes sexually very active and active subpopulations, migration, and a staged progression of HIV-infected persons to AIDS and death. Numerous data sources are used to estimate parameter values in the model. In a companion paper, simulations using the model and parameter estimates are found that are consistent with HIV and AIDS incidence data.

    PMID:
    1806102
    [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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