Objectives: Two methods have been proposed for standardizing measures of nuchal translucency thickness (NT) for risk calculation in first-trimester screening for chromosomal defects: differential delta NT (delta-NT) and multiples of the median (MoM) of NT. There is currently some debate as to which of these is more appropriate. The aims of this study were to determine whether delta-NT could be extrapolated successfully from one center-specific NT reference curve to another and thus to empirically calculate the likelihood ratios (LRs) of delta-NT.
Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of a database of 4248 singleton pregnancies, including 13 cases of Down syndrome. The delta-NT was extrapolated to the reference curve of the NT values of the original group of patients for whom the LRs were calculated empirically, using a scale factor. The Down syndrome risk was calculated by standardizing the NT, using both extrapolated delta-NT and MoM methods, both for the screening based on maternal age and NT alone, and for the combined screening, in which biochemical markers are also taken into account. We analyzed detection rates and false positives, the precision of the risk prediction obtained by each of the methods and the effectiveness when each of the methods was used with a cut-off point based on a fixed post-test risk.
Results: The risk calculation using extrapolated delta-NT presented an effectiveness profile that was similar to that obtained using MoMs, both when NT was used as the sole marker and when it was used in combination with biochemical markers. The precision of the risk prediction was similar with both methods.
Conclusions: Delta-NT can be extrapolated for use in risk calculation between two populations with different distributions and medians of NT values. The precision of the risk estimate obtained is similar to that derived using MoMs.