‘Unexpected novelty’ response: Hemodynamic activity for unpredicted novel pictures, i.e. novel pictures shown after cues predicting familiar pictures, vs. predicted novel pictures, i.e. novel pictures predicted by the preceding cue. (A) Cluster of activation in right SN/VTA. (B) Estimated percent signal change of the hemodynamic response for the two cues (light grey) and four outcome categories (dark grey). Talairach coordinates: [12, − 24, − 7]; error bars indicate SEM. (C) Cluster of activation in right hippocampus. (D) Signal change for the two cues (light grey) and four outcome categories (dark grey). Talairach coordinates: [30, − 22, − 7]; error bars indicate SEM; (A, C) p < 0.005 (uncorrected); p < 0.05 (SVC); cluster size > 5 voxels. (B, D) NC—novelty cue, FC—familiarity cue, EF—expected familiar outcome, UF—unexpected familiar outcome, EN—expected novel outcome, UN—unexpected novel outcome. (B, D) Note that our experimental design did not allow efficient estimation of baseline activity, and thus the absolute values of the parameter estimates are poorly estimated (i.e. the value of 0 on the y axis is somewhat arbitrary), although the differences between parameters are well estimated (Josephs and Henson, 1999).