OBJECTIVE: Adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein (A-FABP) is abundantly expressed in adipocytes and plays a role in glucose homeostasis in experimental animals. We have previously shown that circulating A-FABP levels are associated with the metabolic syndrome, which confers an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Here we investigated whether serum A-FABP levels could predict the development of diabetes in a 10-year prospective study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Baseline serum A-FABP levels were measured with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 544 nondiabetic subjects, recruited from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study cohort, who were followed prospectively to assess the development of type 2 diabetes. The role of A-FABP in predicting the development of type 2 diabetes over 10 years was investigated using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: At baseline, serum sex-adjusted A-FABP levels were higher in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (P < 0.00001 versus normal glucose tolerance) and correlated positively with adverse cardiometabolic risk factors. Over 10 years, 96 subjects had developed type 2 diabetes. High baseline A-FABP was predictive of type 2 diabetes, independent of obesity, insulin resistance, or glycemic indexes (relative risk [RR] 2.25 [95% CI 1.40-3.65]; P = 0.001; above versus below sex-specific median). High A-FABP levels remained an independent predictor of type 2 diabetes in the high-risk IGT/IFG subgroup (adjusted RR 1.87 [1.12-3.15]; P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Serum A-FABP was associated with glucose dysregulation and predicted the development of type 2 diabetes in a Chinese cohort.