OBJECTIVES:

To derive age and sex specific estimates of transition rates from advanced adenomas to colorectal cancer by combining data of a nationwide screening colonoscopy registry and national data on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence.

DESIGN:

Registry based study.

SETTING:

National screening colonoscopy programme in Germany.

PATIENTS:

Participants of screening colonoscopy in 2003 and 2004 (n = 840,149).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Advanced adenoma prevalence, colorectal cancer incidence, annual and 10 year cumulative risk of developing CRC among carriers of advanced adenomas according to sex and age (range 55-80+ years)

RESULTS:

The age gradient is much stronger for CRC incidence than for advanced adenoma prevalence. As a result, projected annual transition rates from advanced adenomas to CRC strongly increase with age (from 2.6% in age group 55-59 years to 5.6% in age group >or=80 years among women, and from 2.6% in age group 55-59 years to 5.1% in age group >or=80 years among men). Projections of 10 year cumulative risk increase from 25.4% at age 55 years to 42.9% at age 80 years in women, and from 25.2% at age 55 years to 39.7% at age 80 years in men.

CONCLUSIONS:

Advanced adenoma transition rates are similar in both sexes, but there is a strong age gradient for both sexes. Our estimates of transition rates in older age groups are in line with previous estimates derived from small case series in the pre-colonoscopy era independent of age. However, our projections for younger age groups are considerably lower. These findings may have important implications for the design of CRC screening programmes.