Observed global CO2 emissions including all terms in Eq. 1, from both the EIA (1980–2004) and global CDIAC (1751–2005) data, compared with emissions scenarios (8) and stabilization trajectories (10–12). EIA emissions data are normalized to same mean as CDIAC data for 1990–1999, to account for omission of FCement in EIA data (see Materials and Methods). The 2004 and 2005 points in the CDIAC data set are provisional. The six IPCC scenarios (8) are spline fits to projections (initialized with observations for 1990) of possible future emissions for four scenario families, A1, A2, B1, and B2, which emphasize globalized vs. regionalized development on the A,B axis and economic growth vs. environmental stewardship on the 1,2 axis. Three variants of the A1 (globalized, economically oriented) scenario lead to different emissions trajectories: A1FI (intensive dependence on fossil fuels), A1T (alternative technologies largely replace fossil fuels), and A1B (balanced energy supply between fossil fuels and alternatives). The stabilization trajectories are spline fits approximating the average from two models (11, 12), which give similar results. They include uncertainty because the emissions pathway to a given stabilization target is not unique.