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    Ir Med J. 2007 Feb;100(2):367-9.

    Lung cancer and urban air-pollution in Dublin: a temporal association?

    Kabir Z, Bennett K, Clancy L.

    Harvard School of Public Health Division of Public Health Practice 401 Park Drive Landmark Center, 3rd Floor (East) Boston, MA 02215, USA. zkabir@hsph.harvard.edu

    In 1990, the sale, marketing and distribution of bituminous coal, primarily used for domestic heating, were banned across Dublin. This study exploits the potential of a 'natural experiment' to assess a temporal association between adjusted annual lung cancer death rates and the changing annual mean urban air-pollution concentrations in Dublin from 1981 to 2000. Annual mean 'black smoke' (BS) concentration was used as an indicator variable for the urban air-pollution mixture. Log-linear Poisson regression model (with an offset) was used to estimate adjusted rate ratios of lung cancer death rates between two periods (1981-1990 and 1991-2000) relative to the year 1990. A significant (p<0.0001) two-third decline in BS concentration (28.2 microg/m(3)) was seen between the two periods [pre-ban (46.4 microg/m(3)) vs. post-ban (18.2 microg/m(3))]. Relative to 1990 (rate ratio= 1 ), a slightly greater decline (2%) in death rates was achieved in the pre-ban period (1981-1990) when mean annual BS concentrations were very high, but a lower decline (1%) was seen in the post-ban period (1991-2000) corresponding to very low mean annual BS concentrations. In other words, a further fall in adjusted rates in lung cancer was achievable both in the pre-ban and the post-ban periods when simultaneously controlling for BS and smoking. A temporal association thus observed between lung cancer death rates and the changing BS concentrations suggests that control of particulate air-pollution could further reduce lung cancer rates, irrespective of smoking patterns.

    PMID: 17432813 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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