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Obstet Gynecol. 2007 Apr;109(4):806-12.

Development of a nomogram for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

Author information

  • 1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois 60611, USA. w-grobman@northwestern.edu

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a model based on factors available at the first prenatal visit that predicts chance of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) for individual patients who undergo a trial of labor.

METHODS:

All women with one prior low transverse cesarean who underwent a trial of labor at term with a vertex singleton gestation were identified from a concurrently collected database of deliveries at 19 academic centers during a 4-year period. Using factors identifiable at the first prenatal visit, we analyzed different classification techniques in an effort to develop a meaningful prediction model for VBAC success. After development and cross-validation, this model was represented by a graphic nomogram.

RESULTS:

Seven-thousand six hundred sixty women were available for analysis. The prediction model is based on a multivariable logistic regression, including the variables of maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, prior vaginal delivery, the occurrence of a VBAC, and a potentially recurrent indication for the cesarean delivery. After analyzing the model with cross-validation techniques, it was found to be both accurate and discriminating.

CONCLUSION:

A predictive nomogram, which incorporates six variables easily ascertainable at the first prenatal visit, has been developed that allows the determination of a patient-specific chance for successful VBAC for those women who undertake trial of labor.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:

II.

Comment in

PMID:
17400840
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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