We evaluated the value of bone turnover markers, including osteocalcin (OC) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase in the serum, and type I collagen C-terminal telopeptide and free and total deoxypyridinoline (tDPD) in the urine of fasting patients, in an attempt to predict which osteopenic women [i.e., those with > or = 70% and <80% of the young adult mean (YAM) bone mineral density (BMD)] would progress to the osteoporosis level of BMD (<70% of YAM). Of the 1153 women without defects in bone metabolism who completed the 3-year follow-up, 147, 161, and 144 women were judged by dual X-ray absorptiometry to be osteopenic from baseline measurements of BMD in the spine (LS), hip (TH), and distal radius (DR), respectively. Progression to the osteoporotic level of BMD was noted for 23.8%, 16.1%, and 12.5% of the subjects with osteopenia of the LS, TH, and DR, respectively, while most of them were in the lower half of the osteopenic level of BMD at baseline. Among the subjects in this lower-level osteopenia category, a significantly higher OC level was observed for the subjects with osteoporosis progression at the LS than those without. The subjects with progression at DR showed a significantly higher tDPD level. The association between OC level and disease progression remained unchanged after adjustments for age, body size, and BMD at baseline. The subjects in the upper one-third category of OC levels showed a 6.4 fold greater risk of progression at LS (95% confidence interval, 1.8-23.1) compared with those in the lower one-third category after the adjustments for age, body size, and BMD at baseline. Receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.716 for the OC level in the prediction of osteoporosis progression at LS. The levels of OC and tDPD may be useful in predicting which osteopenic women will progress to osteoporosis.