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Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Nov;12(11):1671-81.

Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza.

Author information

  • 1National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185-1138, USA. rjglass@sandia.gov

Abstract

Targeted social distancing to mitigate pandemic influenza can be designed through simulation of influenza's spread within local community social contact networks. We demonstrate this design for a stylized community representative of a small town in the United States. The critical importance of children and teenagers in transmission of influenza is first identified and targeted. For influenza as infectious as 1957-58 Asian flu (=50% infected), closing schools and keeping children and teenagers at home reduced the attack rate by >90%. For more infectious strains, or transmission that is less focused on the young, adults and the work environment must also be targeted. Tailored to specific communities across the world, such design would yield local defenses against a highly virulent strain in the absence of vaccine and antiviral drugs.

PMID:
17283616
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC3372334
Free PMC Article

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