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Clin Rheumatol. 2007 May;26(5):772-4. Epub 2007 Feb 1.

Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050.

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  • 1Division of Rheumatology, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, 5501 Hopkins Bayview Circle, Room 1B.17, Baltimore, MD 21224, USA. kfontai1@jhmi.edu

Abstract

Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.

PMID:
17268945
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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