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Methods Inf Med. 2007;46(1):43-9.

The Framingham risk function underestimated absolute coronary heart disease risk in Czech men.

Author information

  • 1EuroMISE Centre, Charles University and Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer Science AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic. reissigova@euromise.cz

Erratum in

  • Methods Inf Med. 2007;46(1):III.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES:

The aim was to validate the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk function with the formula by Wilson et al. (1998) in Czech men.

METHODS:

The validation was performed within the 20-year primary prevention study of atherosclerotic risk factors (STULONG) including 1417 middle-aged men from the Czech Republic (Prague). A total of 646 men examined in 1979-1988, and followed-up for ten years, were included into the validation study. The calibration and discrimination ability of the Framingham risk function in the Czech population were explored.

RESULTS:

The estimated 10-year risk of CHD by the Framingham risk function was 12.8% in 646 men, significantly higher than the observed risk (16.4 %), p = 0.013. The trend in the 10-year incidence of CHD was significantly increasing with quintiles of the estimated risk, p < 0.001. After the recalibration of the Framingham risk function, there was an insignificant difference between the estimated (18.2%) and observed (16.4%) risks of CHD, p = 0.320. The Framingham risk function classified men into those with and without CHD in the 10-year period with accuracy over 60%.

CONCLUSIONS:

Unlike some validation studies from Western Europe, the Framingham risk function significantly underestimated the 10-year CHD risk in the Czech Republic. In agreement with these studies, the incidence of CHD was significantly increasing across quintiles of the estimated risk.

PMID:
17224979
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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