Display Settings:

Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
J Marriage Fam. 2001 May;63(2):473-479.

The Hazards of Predicting Divorce Without Crossvalidation.

Author information

  • 1State University of New York at Stony Brook.

Abstract

Divorce prediction studies (e.g., Gottman, Coan, Carrere, & Swanson, 1998) suggest that couples' eventual divorce can be very accurately predicted from a number of different variables. Recent attention to these studies has failed to consider the need to crossvalidate prediction equations and to consider the prevalence of divorce in the population. We analyze archival data to demonstrate that accuracy and predictive value drops precipitously during crossvalidation. We conclude that results of studies without crossvalidation analyses should be interpreted with extreme caution, no matter how impressive the initial results appear to be.

PMID:
17066126
[PubMed]
PMCID:
PMC1622921
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk