Display Settings:

Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
J Am Vet Med Assoc. 2006 Jun 1;228(11):1748-56.

Use of a multivariable model to estimate the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals that are 7 days of age or less.

Author information

  • 1Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To create a mathematical model to assist in early prediction of the probability of discharge in hospitalized foals < or= 7 days old.

STUDY DESIGN:

Prospective study.

ANIMALS:

1,073 foals.

PROCEDURES:

Medical records from 910 hospitalized foals < or = 7 days old for which outcome was recorded as died or discharged alive were reviewed. Thirty-four variables including historical information, physical examination findings, and laboratory results were examined for association with survival. Variables associated with being discharged alive were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model. Accuracy of the model was validated prospectively on data from 163 foals.

RESULTS:

Factors in the final model included age group, ability to stand, presence of a suckle reflex, WBC count, serum creatinine concentration, and anion gap. Sensitivity and specificity of the model to predict live discharge were 92% and 74%, respectively, in the retrospective population and 90% and 46%, respectively, in the prospective population. Accuracy of an equine clinician's initial prediction of the foal being discharged alive was 83%, and accuracy of the model's prediction was 81%. Combining the clinician's prediction of probability of live discharge with that of the model significantly increased (median increase, 12%) the accuracy of the prediction for foals that were discharged and nonsignificantly decreased (median decrease, 9%) the accuracy of the predication for nonsurvivors.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE:

Combining the clinician's initial predication of the probability of a foal being discharged alive with that of the model appeared to provide a more precise early estimate of the probability of live discharge for hospitalized foals.

PMID:
16740076
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Atypon
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk