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Health Aff (Millwood). 2006 Mar-Apr;25(2):w61-73. Epub 2006 Feb 22.

Health spending projections through 2015: changes on the horizon.

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  • 1National Health Statistics Group, Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore, Maryland, USA.


Growth in national health spending is projected to slow in 2005 to 7.4 percent, from a peak of 9.1 percent in 2002. Private health insurance premiums are projected to slow to 6.6 percent in 2005, with a rebound expected in 2007. The introduction of Medicare Part D drug coverage in 2006 produces a dramatic shift in spending across payers but has little net effect on aggregate spending growth. Health spending is expected to consistently outpace gross domestic product (GDP) over the coming decade, accounting for 20 percent of GDP by 2015.

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