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J Assist Reprod Genet. 2005 Dec;22(11-12):401-5.

Likelihood of natural conception following treatment by IVF.

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  • 1University of Bristol Centre for Reproductive Medicine, Academic Unit of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Clinical Sciences at South Bristol, St. Michael's Hospital, Bristol, BS2 8EG, United Kingdom.



To predict the ongoing likelihood of natural conception, when a couple has ceased to try to conceive by assisted conception.


A postal questionnaire survey obtained information on further attempts to conceive and have a baby, either without treatment or by treatment elsewhere.


From a response rate of 44%, there were 116 couples who fulfilled the study criteria. The data presented are based on this group. The overall likelihood of conception was 18%. Cumulative results were analysed up to 3 years following treatment. Univariate analysis showed that likelihood of conception was affected by infertility diagnosis (p = 0.024), woman's age (> 38 years; p < 0.005) (negatively) and duration of infertility (< 3 years; p < 0.005) (positively), while primary infertility did not. Effects of diagnosis and infertility duration were confirmed by multivariable analysis, controlling for age and primary infertility. These latter variables had no independent effect.


The likelihood of natural conception following IVF treatment was determined by duration of infertility and diagnosis; tubal disease in particular was associated with a very poor likelihood of natural conception.

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