Format

Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Science. 2005 Oct 14;310(5746):248-9.

Atmospheric science. Weather forecasting with ensemble methods.

Author information

  • 1Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. tilmann@stat.washington.edu

Abstract

Traditional weather forecasting has been built on a foundation of deterministic modeling--start with initial conditions, put them into a supercomputer model, and end up with a prediction about future weather. But as Gneiting and Raftery discuss in their Perspective, a new approach--ensemble forecasting--was introduced in the early 1990s. In this method, up to 100 different computer runs, each with slightly different starting conditions or model assumptions, are combined into a weather forecast. In concert with statistical techniques, ensembles can provide accurate statements about the uncertainty in daily and seasonal forecasting. The challenge now is to improve the modeling, statistical analysis, and visualization technologies for disseminating the ensemble results.

PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for HighWire
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk