Aim: Extensive efforts are underway to develop methods for the detection and treatment of vulnerable/high-risk coronary artery plaques. We utilized decision analysis to evaluate the hypothetical clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of a catheter-based strategy.
Methods and results: Currently, stenotic coronary plaques are treated without regard to vulnerability. In a new strategy, vulnerable coronary plaques are detected with a catheter-based test and treated with a drug-eluting stent, regardless of degree of stenosis. A Markov-decision model was developed to compare the new strategy with current practice. Monte Carlo simulations were performed from a societal perspective, costs were converted to year 2003 U.S. dollars, and future costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of assumptions on variables such as the prevalence of vulnerable plaques and treatment effect. In 60-year-old male patients with coronary stenoses the new strategy would be less expensive and more effective than current practice (37,045 dollars vs 38,257 dollars and 10.23 vs 9.86 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively). The benefits of the new strategy were robust in sensitivity analyses (e.g., if the prevalence of vulnerable plaques in this patient group was 50% or more and the sensitivity and specificity of the new test were at least 0.80).
Conclusion: In selected patients with coronary artery stenosis, the detection of vulnerable plaques with a catheter-based test followed by their treatment with a drug-eluting stent could be a less expensive and more effective strategy than current practice. If applied to 1 million such patients in the United States undergoing catheterization, the new strategy would add 370,000 QALYs and save 1.2 billion dollars per year.
(J Interven Cardiol 2005;18:339-349).