University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test data from control subjects (n = 63), patients with mild cognitive impairment (n = 147), and patients with Alzheimer's disease (n = 100) were analyzed to derive an optimal subset of items related to risk for Alzheimer's disease (ie, healthy through mild cognitive impairment to early and moderate disease stages). The derived 10-item scale performed comparably with the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test in classifying subjects, and it strongly predicted conversion to Alzheimer's disease on follow-up evaluation in patients with mild cognitive impairment. Independent replication is needed to validate these findings.