N Engl J Med. 2005 Mar 17;352(11):1138-45.

A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century.

Olshansky SJ, Passaro DJ, Hershow RC, Layden J, Carnes BA, Brody J, Hayflick L, Butler RN, Allison DB, Ludwig DS.

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University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago 60612, USA. sjayo@uic.edu

Abstract

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

Comment in

Obesity and longevity. [N Engl J Med. 2005]
Obesity and longevity.Carpenter AH. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16; 352(24):2556.
Obesity and longevity. [N Engl J Med. 2005]
Obesity and longevity.Suter PM, Moser C. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16; 352(24):2556.
Obesity and longevity. [N Engl J Med. 2005]
Obesity and longevity.Whitehouse FW. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16; 352(24):2555; author reply 2556-7.
Deadweight?--The influence of obesity on longevity. [N Engl J Med. 2005]
Deadweight?--The influence of obesity on longevity.Preston SH. N Engl J Med. 2005 Mar 17; 352(11):1135-7.

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N Engl J Med. 2005 Mar 17 ;352(11):1138-45.

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