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Science. 2005 Mar 18;307(5716):1769-72.

How much more global warming and sea level rise?

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  • 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.


Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed.

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