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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Nov 30;101(48):16915-6. Epub 2004 Nov 19.

Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics.

Author information

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. dushoff@eno.princeton.edu

Abstract

Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

PMID:
15557003
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC534740
Free PMC Article

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