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Science. 2004 Oct 22;306(5696):679-82. Epub 2004 Sep 30.

Reconstructing past climate from noisy data.

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  • 1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de

Abstract

Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.

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PMID:
15459344
[PubMed]
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