Display Settings:

Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Dec 23;100(26):15341-5. Epub 2003 Dec 8.

Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911-1995.

Author information

  • 1Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-8225, USA. jsmall@geog.umd.edu

Abstract

Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends. In areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

PMID:
14663146
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC307569
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for HighWire Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk