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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Dec 23;100(26):15341-5. Epub 2003 Dec 8.

Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911-1995.

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  • 1Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-8225, USA. jsmall@geog.umd.edu


Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends. In areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

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