Abstract

An important aspect of preventive medicine is to identify subjects at risk as soon as possible, so preventive strategies can be introduced at early ages. The justification for this strategy is twofold: firstly, the assumption that children maintain a particular high value of a risk factor for disease throughout life; and secondly, the assumption that lowering the level of the risk factor in early life will have a greater impact on the disease than will risk factor changes in later life. In epidemiology the analysis of such factors over time is referred to as tracking. Tracking analysis has been applied to risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in pediatric years. The aims of this study were: I) to analyze the stability of biological risk factors [high blood pressure (BP), high percentage of fat mass (%FM) and high total cholesterol (TC)] and lifestyle risk factors [low physical activity index (PAI)] in isolation; and II) to analyze the stability of zero, one, two or three biological risk factors. There were two evaluations in 692 children and adolescents (325 boys and 367 girls), aged between 8 and 15 years. The quartiles, adjusted for age and gender, were the criterion used to identify subjects with biological risk factors (fourth quartile) and with lifestyle risk factors (first quartile) for CVD. The stability was calculated through the relative frequency of subjects who maintained or changed quartile between the two evaluations. There is stability for biological risk factors as well as for behavioral and/or lifestyle risk factors. However, the highest stability is seen in biological risk factors.