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Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 May;9(5):531-8.

Pandemic influenza and healthcare demand in the Netherlands: scenario analysis.

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  • 1Centre for Prevention and Health Services Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.


In accordance with World Health Organization guidelines, the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports designed a national plan to minimize effects of pandemic influenza. Within the scope of the Dutch pandemic preparedness plan, we were asked to estimate the magnitude of the problem in terms of the number of hospitalizations and deaths during an influenza pandemic. Using scenario analysis, we also examined the potential effects of intervention options. We describe and compare the scenarios developed to understand the potential impact of a pandemic (i.e., illness, hospitalizations, deaths), various interventions, and critical model parameters. Scenario analysis is a helpful tool for making policy decisions about the design and planning of outbreak control management on a national, regional, or local level.

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