Objective: Using Markov model Monte Carlo simulation to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of screening Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection to prevent gastric cancer.
Methods: The Markov model was developed based on the natural course from H. pylori infection to gastric cancer. Two strategies were compared: (1) screening for H. pylori and treatment for those with positive tests, and (2) without screening and treatment. Data used for model simulation including transition probability, efficacy of test and treatment were collected from related research publications. Markov model Monte Carlo simulation combined with bootstrap method was used to perform base-case analysis and estimate the confidence interval of cost-effectiveness ratios. The probability sensitivity analysis was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness in multiple uncertainty factors.
Results: Assuming H. pylori eradication will prevent 50% of attribute gastric cancer, the screening strategies would prevent 16.6% cases of gastric cancer. Cost-effectiveness were 10,405 Yuan (95% CI: 4,238 - 27,727 Yuan) per GC prevented, 64 Yuan (95% CI: 31 - 97 Yuan) per QALY saved and 1,374 Yuan (95% CI: 352 - 86,624 Yuan) per life year saved.
Conclusion: Screening and treatment for H. pylori infection in population was potentially effective in the prevention of gastric cancer, and screening in high incidence area of gastric cancer would be more effective and economic.