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    AIDS Wkly Plus. 1996 Dec 23-30:12-3.

    Expert forecasts AIDS epidemic. International (Russia).

    [No authors listed]

    PIP: This brief article indicates that Professor Vadim Povkrovsky of the Russian Scientific Systematic Center for Prevention and the Fight Against AIDS estimated the current number of HIV-infected persons in Russia to be about 10,000. He also estimated that 100,000 people could be HIV-infected by the end of 1997 and 500,000 a year later. Povkrovsky urged the parliament to approve an anti-AIDS program, as did the director of the anti-AIDS program. In 1996 the registry indicated 1033 new cases of HIV, which was five times the number registered in 1995 and more than the number for the entire 10-year period. The transmission of HIV is highest among drug users. The director of the anti-AIDS program reported that fewer than 2100 people were carriers of HIV, 245 people had AIDS, and 60 were infected with HIV every day. Russia has a total population of 150 million, which dwarfs the number of AIDS and HIV cases. The concern is the potential for exponential growth in cases and the currently high levels of sexually transmitted diseases, which facilitate HIV infection. HIV incidence in 1996 among drug addicts was an estimated 750 cases, which is an increase of 747 over the course of a year. The Russian parliament passed legislation that would prohibit foreigners with AIDS from entering the country and that would require long-term visitors to prove their non-HIV status. Implementation has not yet taken place. Over the past 10 years the spread of AIDS has been slow due to the country's isolation, conventional sexual behavior, and low drug abuse levels. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and a more open economy may be contributing influences in the more rapid spread of AIDS.

    PMID: 12320718 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]