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Egypt Popul Fam Plann Rev. 1973 Jun;3(1):25-31.

The effects of fertility on economically active population: Egypt (1960-1975).

Abstract

PIP:

The major aspects of the population problem in Egypt are discussed with particular emphasis on the demographic gap. Projected populations for 1960-1975 are made according to 2 hypotheses. In Hypothesis 1, fertility will remain constant during 1960-1975 with a gross reproduction rate of 3.2. Hypothesis 2 assumes rapid decrease in fertility within 1960-1975 by about 40%. This hypothesis assumes a fairly rapid dissemination of family planning. If the fertility and mortality rates follow the pattern given by Hypothesis 1, the crude birth rate will increase from 43.9 per 1000 in 1960 to 45 per 1000 in 1975, and the total population will have a net increase of about 13 million resulting in serious economic consequences. However, in Hypothesis 2 there will be a decrease in fertility with a smaller proportion of the population under the age of 15. Under this situation, there is less burden to the economy. An intensive program of family planning together with a program for industrialization must be started immediately. The birth rate and the number of births will be high for a number of years because of the relatively high number of females in reproductive ages. It is suggested that the exploration of excess trained manpower to other parts of the world, although limited scope, also deserves planning.

PMID:
12257746
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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