It is here established that potentiometric polymeric membrane electrodes based on electrically neutral ionophores are useful analytical tools for heavy metal ion determinations in drinking water at nanomolar total concentrations. This means that they can compete with the most sophisticated techniques of instrumental analysis. With optimized ion-selective membranes based on the lead-selective ionophore 4-tert-butylcalix[4]arenetetrakis(thioacetic acid dimethylamide) as model example, a number of native and spiked drinking water samples are potentiometrically assessed for lead, and the results compared with ICPMS measurements. The goal of this work is to demonstrate that detection limits in real world samples are routinely achieved that are, with 1.5 ppb, at least 10-fold lower than the lead action limit imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (15 ppb). In contrast to earlier reports, different conditioning and measuring protocols are followed, and membranes and inner filling solution of optimized composition are used. The sensors are shown to be useful for the speciation analysis of lead in water as well. Typical water samples are acidified to pH 4 to assess total lead rather than free, uncomplexed lead. For lead concentrations above 2 ppb, the values compare very well with ICPMS. Main interferences are found to be H+ and Cu2+, although Cu2+ only shows significant interference at levels around or above its own action limit (1.3 ppm), in which case the water sample would anyway show quality problems. An explicit, simplified flux model targeted to the practical use of these sensors explains the extent of expected interference. Sensors are shown to require a higher selectivity than predicted by models not considering ion fluxes, since in dilute samples, the counterdiffusion flux of lead from the membrane into the sample becomes potential determining. The model and experiments shown here are a foundation for future trace level applications of potentiometric polymeric membrane electrodes.