A simple vaccination model with multiple endemic states

Math Biosci. 2000 Apr;164(2):183-201. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(00)00003-1.

Abstract

A simple two-dimensional SIS model with vaccination exhibits a backward bifurcation for some parameter values. A two-population version of the model leads to the consideration of vaccination policies in paired border towns. The results of our mathematical analysis indicate that a vaccination campaign φ meant to reduce a disease's reproduction number R(φ) below one may fail to control the disease. If the aim is to prevent an epidemic outbreak, a large initial number of infective persons can cause a high endemicity level to arise rather suddenly even if the vaccine-reduced reproduction number is below threshold. If the aim is to eradicate an already established disease, bringing the vaccine-reduced reproduction number below one may not be sufficient to do so. The complete bifurcation analysis of the model in terms of the vaccine-reduced reproduction number is given, and some extensions are considered.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • AIDS Vaccines / adverse effects
  • AIDS Vaccines / standards*
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • HIV Infections / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Mexico / epidemiology
  • Models, Immunological*
  • Public Health*
  • Rubella / prevention & control
  • Rubella Vaccine / adverse effects
  • Rubella Vaccine / standards
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Vaccination / adverse effects
  • Vaccination / standards*

Substances

  • AIDS Vaccines
  • Rubella Vaccine