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Ann Rheum Dis. 1999 Sep;58(9):569-72.

Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery.

Author information

  • 1ARC Epidemiology Unit, University of Manchester, M13 9PT.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES:

To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades

METHODS:

Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.

RESULTS:

Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further-up to double the current number.

CONCLUSION:

A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.

PMID:
10460191
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC1752937
Free PMC Article
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