Abstract

Effective HIV-1 therapies may directly or indirectly impact the development of AIDS-associated malignancies. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, a longitudinal cohort study of the natural history of HIV-1 infection among homosexual men, the incidence rates of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) over calendar time were determined for the 1813 HIV-1-seropositive men enrolled in 1984 through 1985. Poisson regression models were used to identify statistically significant temporal trends. Nested case control studies were used to assess whether recent cases of these malignancies represented treatment breakthroughs. The incidence of KS as a presenting AIDS illness significantly (p = .003) declined from 25.6 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.8-29.9) in the early 1990s to an average incidence of 7.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 3.4-16.7) in 1996 through 1997. In contrast, the incidence of NHL has continued to increase significantly (p < .001) at a rate of 21% per year since 1985, although a possible recent decrease is suggested. None of the recent KS cases and only 1 of 8 NHL cases had used the potent antiretroviral therapies, compared with >70 percent of the HIV-1-seropositive men who were free of malignancies and observed over the same time period. These results may be due to an indirect protection against developing KS by the boosting of the immune system by antiretroviral therapies. However, it is important to clarify the direct therapeutic effect on the pathogenic disease mechanism of human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8), the agent postulated to be important in the causal pathway of KS. The absence of a similar effect on NHL may be due to a lack of effect on its pathogenesis or because potent antiretroviral therapies need to be administered early in the disease process and the cases that have occurred represent outcomes following a long latency period. With additional follow-up, an impact on NHL may yet be observed.