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Parasitol Today. 1999 Mar;15(3):105-11.

A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

Author information

  • 1National Malaria Research Programme, South African Medical Research Council, PO Box 17120, Congella, Durban 4013, South Africa. craigm@mrc.ac.za

Abstract

Malaria remains the single largest threat to child survival in sub-Saharan Africa and warrants long-term investment for control. Previous malaria distribution maps have been vague and arbitrary. Marlies Craig, Bob Snow and David le Sueur here describe a simple numerical approach to defining distribution of malaria transmission, based upon biological constraints of climate on parasite and vector development. The model compared well with contemporary field data and historical 'expert opinion' maps, excepting small-scale ecological anomalies. The model provides a numerical basis for further refinement and prediction of the impact of climate change on transmission. Together with population, morbidity and mortality data, the model provides a fundamental tool for strategic control of malaria.

PMID:
10322323
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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