Abstract

We use a vector autoregression to examine the dynamic relationship between the race-specific percentage of pregnancies terminated by induced abortion and the race-specific percentage of low-birthweight births in New York City. With monthly data beginning in 1972, we find that induced abortion explains low birthweight for blacks, but not for whites. There is no evidence of feedback from low birthweight to induced abortion. The findings suggest that unanticipated decreases in the percentage of pregnancies terminated by induced abortion would worsen birth outcomes among blacks in New York City.

PIP:

Health economists used monthly aggregate data from January 1972-December 1988, specifically vector autoregression, to examine the relationship between the race specific induced abortion rate and race specific infant health as measured by percentage of low birth weight in New York City. 5 lag lengths in the rate of low birth weight were used to approximate the length of a pregnancy in order to make comparison with abortion and early care. As the percentage of induced abortions fell among blacks the rate of low birth weight among blacks significantly increased, especially in the 3rd month following a shock, e.g., closing of abortion clinics, restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions, etc. Over a 36 month forecast period, the cumulative increase in the rate of low birth weight for blacks was 3.16 percentage points and the mean increase was 11.6%. On the other hand, induced abortions did not affect low birth weight at all in whites during the 1st 4 months. The corresponding cumulative increase for whites was .83 percentage points and an average increase of 6.2%. The impulse response functions used to obtain these results may have actually revealed lower bound estimates of the effect of severely restricted access to legal abortion, however. These results indicated that restrictions on abortion would increase the incidence of low birth weight infants among blacks in New York City. Since 46% of all pregnancies in New York City were legally terminated in 1984 and the corresponding average was 21% for the 12 states that report induced abortion statistics to the National Center of Health Statistics, these results may not necessarily be generalized to other areas of the United States, however.