PMC

Predicted annual reductions in direct healthcare expenditure in Arizona (top) and difference cigarette consumption between Arizona and control states (bottom) attributable to the Arizona tobacco control program. Light lines show 95% confidence intervals.

Dynamic predictions of per capita healthcare expenditure and difference in cigarette demand between control states and Arizona describe the observed data. (top) Arizona, h_AZ,t from equations () and () using predicted values of difference in cigarette consumption between control states and Arizona. (bottom) Predicted difference in per capita healthcare expenditure using predicted values of difference in cigarette consumption between control states and Arizona, (s_c,t−s_AZ,t) from equations () and (). Symbols: observed values (black circles), predicted long-run cointegrating relationship (dotted line), predicted values from dynamic predictions using cointegrating and ECM equations (solid line).

Arizona per capita healthcare expenditures were lower than predicted (top panel) and the differences between control state and Arizona per capita cigarette consumption larger than predicted (bottom panel) without the Arizona tobacco control program (light lines). (top): Arizona h_AZ,t, from equations () and () using predicted difference in control state and Arizona cigarette consumption from equations () and (). (bottom) Difference in control state and Arizona cigarette consumption, (s_c,t−s_AZ,t) from equations () and (). Symbols: observed values (black circles), predicted values from dynamic predictions using the cointegrating and ECM equations (thick solid line), predicted values without the Arizona tobacco control educational expenditures set to zero (thin black line).