• We are sorry, but NCBI web applications do not support your browser and may not function properly. More information
Logo of procbhomepageaboutsubmitalertseditorial board
Proc Biol Sci. Aug 7, 2004; 271(Suppl 5): S364–S366.
PMCID: PMC1810049

Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks.

Abstract

It is widely known that the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, that is capable of explaining this reduction. Our considerations provide what is, to our knowledge, a new angle on polynomial epidemic processes, and may have implications for the choice of strategy against such epidemics.

Full Text

The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (79K).

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
  • Barabasi AL, Albert R. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science. 1999 Oct 15;286(5439):509–512. [PubMed]
  • Colgate SA, Stanley EA, Hyman JM, Layne SP, Qualls C. Risk behavior-based model of the cubic growth of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1989 Jun;86(12):4793–4797. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
  • Keeling MJ, Rand DA, Morris AJ. Correlation models for childhood epidemics. Proc Biol Sci. 1997 Aug 22;264(1385):1149–1156. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
  • Klovdahl AS. Social networks and the spread of infectious diseases: the AIDS example. Soc Sci Med. 1985;21(11):1203–1216. [PubMed]
  • Lloyd AL, May RM. Epidemiology. How viruses spread among computers and people. Science. 2001 May 18;292(5520):1316–1317. [PubMed]
  • May RM, Anderson RM. Transmission dynamics of HIV infection. Nature. 1987 Mar 12;326(6109):137–142. [PubMed]
  • May RM, Anderson RM. The transmission dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1988 Oct 31;321(1207):565–607. [PubMed]
  • Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Phys Rev Lett. 2001 Apr 2;86(14):3200–3203. [PubMed]
  • Potterat JJ, Zimmerman-Rogers H, Muth SQ, Rothenberg RB, Green DL, Taylor JE, Bonney MS, White HA. Chlamydia transmission: concurrency, reproduction number, and the epidemic trajectory. Am J Epidemiol. 1999 Dec 15;150(12):1331–1339. [PubMed]
  • Read Jonathan M, Keeling Matt J. Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure. Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Apr 7;270(1516):699–708. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
  • Rothenberg RB, Potterat JJ, Woodhouse DE, Muth SQ, Darrow WW, Klovdahl AS. Social network dynamics and HIV transmission. AIDS. 1998 Aug 20;12(12):1529–1536. [PubMed]
  • Walker Polly R, Worobey Michael, Rambaut Andrew, Holmes Edward C, Pybus Oliver G. Epidemiology: Sexual transmission of HIV in Africa. Nature. 2003 Apr 17;422(6933):679–679. [PubMed]
  • Watts DJ, Strogatz SH. Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature. 1998 Jun 4;393(6684):440–442. [PubMed]
  • Yorke JA, Hethcote HW, Nold A. Dynamics and control of the transmission of gonorrhea. Sex Transm Dis. 1978 Apr-Jun;5(2):51–56. [PubMed]

Articles from Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences are provided here courtesy of The Royal Society

Formats:

Related citations in PubMed

See reviews...See all...

Cited by other articles in PMC

See all...

Links

  • PubMed
    PubMed
    PubMed citations for these articles

Recent Activity

Your browsing activity is empty.

Activity recording is turned off.

Turn recording back on

See more...