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2.
Figure 2

Figure 2. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Demographic features in Allegheny County synthetic population. (a) Overall population density in Allegheny County. (b) Spatial distribution by household size, age of householder, race of householder, and household income.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
3.
Figure 7

Figure 7. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Infection attack rates for five school closure scenarios. The attack rate is significantly lower during the period corresponding to school closures, but the final attack rate is similar for all scenarios, reflecting the resurgence of the epidemic once schools reopen, as in [6].

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
4.
Figure 9

Figure 9. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Website showing results of FRED simulations. Results available for an influenza simulation in Allegheny County, PA at fred.publichealth.pitt.edu. Similar results are available for every county in the US. Users can also specify epidemic parameters and control parameters for additional simulations, and can download data files to perform additional analyses.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
5.
Figure 8

Figure 8. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Infection attack rate for 3142 counties in the United States, using FRED’s baseline pandemic influenza transmission parameters. The plot shows the mean attack rate for each county over 20 stochastic simulations. The attack rate displays significant heterogeneity across US counties.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
6.
Figure 1

Figure 1. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

County level agreement between synthetic population and the American Community Survey (ACS). (a) Number of US counties with each percent difference in age of the head of household. (b) Mean and standard deviation over all counties of percentage differences by age of the head of household.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
7.
Figure 6

Figure 6. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Daily incidence curves for FRED pandemic influenza model under five school closure scenarios. The baseline scenario assumed no school closures. For the other scenarios, individual schools in Allegheny County are closed the next day after 10 symptomatic students attended the school. The duration of the closure varied from 2 to 8 weeks. Regardless of the duration of the school closure, a secondary epidemic peak occurs when all the schools reopen.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
8.
Figure 3

Figure 3. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Mechanisms for agent-specific health decision-making in FRED. Agents can query the information layer to assess, for example, the current incidence, resulting in a perception (“how susceptible am I to the disease?”). Perceptions can be used by a behavior change model that determines whether to change the agent’s intention to perform the health-related behavior. These features permits the FRED developer to investigate a wide variety of alternative health behavior change models, including the Health Belief Model [36,37].

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.
9.
Figure 5

Figure 5. From: FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Runtime in seconds as a function of population size (in millions of agents), in log-log scale. Runtime is based on simulation of one influenza season in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The states marked are WY (pop. approx. 500 K), PA (pop. approx. 11.8 M) and CA (pop. approx. 33.6 M). Observed runtimes were approximately 32.4 seconds per million individuals over the entire range of population sizes tested. Runs were performed using 16 threads on a 12-core Mac Pro with 64 GB of RAM, running at 2.93 GHz.

John J Grefenstette, et al. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:940-940.

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